Working scenario tool
What reaches the refinery.
What each barrel costs.
Build a transparent cargo-cost bridge. All initial values are illustrative assumptions, not current market prices.
Reference-price sensitivity
Change only the reference price by USD 5/bbl in either direction. This is a fixed stress test, not a forecast.
Calculation method and boundaries
Purchase = volume × (reference + differential). Logistics = volume × (freight + port costs). Insurance = purchase × insurance rate / 100. Financing = purchase × annual rate / 100 × days / 365. Delivered volume = volume × (1 − loss rate / 100). Delivered unit cost = (purchase + logistics + insurance + financing) / delivered volume.
Insurance and simple financing apply only to purchased crude value. No compounding, duties, demurrage, hedging, taxes, foreign exchange, refinery yields or other contract charges are included. Loss reduces delivered volume; it does not reduce invoiced volume. Actual terms may differ. Negative purchase prices are outside this model’s scope.